Tag Archives: doctype

James Mattis Doesn’t Really Fit In With the Trump Administration

Mother Jones

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From our Secretary of Defense earlier this evening:

Oh snap. Do you have any more shade you’d like to throw at your boss?

He seems to have a firm grasp of who he works for, anyway.

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James Mattis Doesn’t Really Fit In With the Trump Administration

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Job Creation Has Been on a Downward Slide For More Than Two Years

Mother Jones

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For some reason I was prompted to create this chart yesterday:

There’s a ton of noise in this series, but nonetheless the fitted trendline is fairly clear. Net new job creation1 has been on a steady downward slide for more than two years, declining from an average of 140 in 2015 to 100 in 2016 to 70 so far this year. I don’t know how meaningful this is, but it doesn’t really seem like a good thing, does it?

1We need 90,000 new jobs just to keep up with population growth. Thus, net new job creation is the number of new jobs minus 90,000.

Source: 

Job Creation Has Been on a Downward Slide For More Than Two Years

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It’s No Mystery That Donald Trump Isn’t Paying Much Attention to Immigration

Mother Jones

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From the Washington Post:

Lawmakers baffled that immigration getting short shrift in Washington

Meh. Trump never cared much about immigration. It was just a campaign tool, and he practically admitted as much at one point. That’s not to say he won’t try to get something done about it, but it’s never likely to be a huge issue for him. And without him putting a lot of energy behind it, it won’t go anywhere. There are too many Republican members of Congress who are opposed to highly punitive immigration rules.

Eventually the immigration hawks will learn the same thing as everyone else: it’s all just one long con. Trump doesn’t care about policy. Not immigration, not taxes, not abortion, not health care, not ISIS. He has vague inclinations on all these things, but that’s all. He’s mainly driven by whatever can keep him in the spotlight for the next week or two.

That’s probably the real reason he pulled out of the Paris climate accord. If he stays in, he gets nothing. If he pulls out, he gets a week or two of attention. It was an easy choice.

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It’s No Mystery That Donald Trump Isn’t Paying Much Attention to Immigration

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Corporate America Is Doing Great

Mother Jones

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If you’re wondering why the stock market is doing so well lately, here’s the answer:

Earnings at U.S. companies grew at the fastest pace in nearly six years in the first quarter, the latest boon to a bull market that has stretched into its ninth year.

With nearly all companies in the S&P 500 having reported results, aggregate earnings for the first quarter are on track to grow 13.6% from the year-earlier period….Beyond the jump in growth, many investors have been encouraged by signs that the quality of the results is improving. That contrasts with recent years, when investors worried that corporate share buybacks and ultralow interest rates were juicing stock gains in the absence of business improvement.

It’s not Trumpmania, it’s just old-fashioned earnings growth. More people are buying stuff and companies are making more money. It’s simple.

How long will this last? I don’t know any more than anyone else, but my guess is that the current expansion has another year to go. I’m starting to see signs of an economy that’s getting a little too exuberant, and I suspect that 2018 is going to be a mild recession year. Please note that this prediction is worth every cent you paid for it.

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Corporate America Is Doing Great

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Industrial Production Is Not Really "Surging"

Mother Jones

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Donald Trump is bragging today that industrial production “surged” in April. And sure enough, it was up 1.7 percent compared to last year. That’s not bad. But you know what else increased since last year? The population of the United States. Here’s the industrial production index from the Federal Reserve adjusted for population growth:

That tiny blip at the end represents the surge. So don’t get too excited. Per capita industrial production in the US has been roughly flat for the past four years and nothing that Trump has done so far—or is likely to do—has much chance of changing that dramatically.

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Industrial Production Is Not Really "Surging"

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