Tag Archives: kevin drum

Friday Cat Blogging – 24 March 2017

Mother Jones

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ZOMG! If Hopper is even closer than this, HOW CLOSE IS SHE???

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Friday Cat Blogging – 24 March 2017

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The Latest: Trump Still Insisting on Vote for Doomed Health Care Bill

Mother Jones

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So here’s where we are. Apparently things are getting worse, not better, for the Republican health care bill. More and more members of the House are publicly saying they’ll vote No, and it’s threatening to turn into a bandwagon. Who wants to vote in favor of a terrible bill that’s going down to defeat anyway?

Paul Ryan and the rest of the House leadership is considering pulling the bill rather than suffering through an embarrassing loss, and Ryan has told President Trump he doesn’t have the votes to pass it. Trump still wants a vote, though, so he can take down the names of the No voters and swear eternal vengeance on them. He’s already declared war on the Freedom Caucus.

Anyway, the vote is only about an hour away (3:30 pm Eastern), and it hasn’t been officially postponed yet. Sean Spicer just told the press corps that it was still going forward. Paul Ryan may know when to beat a tactical retreat, but Trump is not really a tactical retreat kind of guy. Most likely, he’s going to insist on a vote no matter what. And the bill will go down.

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The Latest: Trump Still Insisting on Vote for Doomed Health Care Bill

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GOP Health Care Bill Is Worse Than Just Repealing Obamacare Completely

Mother Jones

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Over at The Upshot, Margot Sanger-Katz catches something that any of us might have noticed if we’d had keen enough eyes. The CBO famously projected that the Republican health care bill would result in 24 million people losing health insurance:

But one piece of context has gone little noticed: The Republican bill would actually result in more people being uninsured than if Obamacare were simply repealed. Getting rid of the major coverage provisions and regulations of Obamacare would cost 23 million Americans their health insurance, according to another recent C.B.O. report. In other words, 1 million more Americans would have health insurance with a clean repeal than with the Republican replacement plan, according to C.B.O. estimates.

Here’s what the CBO said in its January report. If only the individual mandate, the subsidies, and the Medicaid expansion are repealed, 32 million people will lose insurance by 2026. If, in addition, community rating, minimum coverage requirements, and the preexisting conditions ban are repealed—in other words, if essentially all of Obamacare is repealed and nothing put in its place—23 million people will lose insurance by 2026.

As it happens, the current Republican bill is similar to Option 1, which means the GOP is making progress. Under their old bill 32 million people would be kicked off the insurance rolls, while the new bill only kicks off 24 million. However, they could do even better by just repealing everything, full stop.

Now, it so happens that they can’t do that. Democrats can filibuster all the additional stuff in Option 2. Nevertheless, Sanger-Katz is right: it’s pretty remarkable that the Republican bill actually does more damage than repealing Obamacare and simply doing nothing at all. Not just any party can pull off something like that.

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GOP Health Care Bill Is Worse Than Just Repealing Obamacare Completely

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Well, This Was the World’s Easiest Chart to Make

Mother Jones

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CBPP has calculated how much tax money you’ll save if Obamacare is repealed. Behold:

You know what really gets me? Even among the millionaires, repeal will only net them about $50,000. That’s like finding spare change in the sofa cushions for this crowd. Is clawing back a few nickels and dimes really worth immiserating 20 million people?

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Well, This Was the World’s Easiest Chart to Make

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Raw Data: Field Worker Wages Since the Great Recession

Mother Jones

Apropos of nothing in particular, I got curious this morning about illegal immigration and field workers. About half of all field workers are undocumented, so if there’s been a surge of illegal immigration lately, as some have speculated, you’d expect to see the wages of field workers decline. But how would you measure that?

I’m not sure what the best approach is, but I decided to compare the wages of field workers to the wages of all nonsupervisory workers. Here’s what I got:

Relative wages for field workers were flat all through the aughts, as illegal immigration was climbing, and declined a bit during the Great Recession. However, since 2012 they’ve risen three percentage points. In 2016, field workers earned nearly 57 percent of the average nonsupervisory wage.

Based on this, I’m willing to bet that that illegal immigration hasn’t surged over the past couple of years. Just the opposite, maybe, which would be consistent with the rise in field worker wages since 2012.

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Raw Data: Field Worker Wages Since the Great Recession

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