Tag Archives: uninsured

The Uninsured Rate Just Keeps Going Down, Down, Down

Mother Jones

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I’m back. I’ve now done my civic duty yet again, so I’m safe until the next time the Orange County justice system wants me to sit around all day and curse at unreliable Wi-Fi coverage. Oddly, their Wi-Fi is worse than it was the last time I was there, three or four years ago. I think they’ve outsourced it since then. On the bright side, this time around I could provide my own internet connection, so I don’t care that much. Plus, since I never get actually called for a jury these days, I’ve once again preserved my record of being foreman on 100 percent of the juries I’ve ever sat on.

As your reward for waiting around all day for me, here’s the latest CDC data on the uninsured rate. Being the big government agency they are, they’re just getting around to crunching the numbers for the second quarter, and they report that Obamacare has driven the uninsured rate down yet again, to 10.3 percent.1 Not bad for a program that, I’m told, is in a death spiral and will implode any second now.

1Gallup says the uninsured rate in the second quarter was 11.4 percent. The difference comes from who they count. Gallup counts everyone over 18. CDC counts everyone under age 65.

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The Uninsured Rate Just Keeps Going Down, Down, Down

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Here’s a Second Look at Obamacare and the Uninsured

Mother Jones

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Here’s a quick follow-up on my guess earlier this week that Obamacare will reduce the ranks of the uninsured by about 10 million when we finally close out 2014. The Urban Institute has released its latest survey results and concludes that Obamacare insured about 5.4 million people through early March. This is a comparison with Fall 2013, so it doesn’t include the sub-26ers who have been covered by their parents’ policies since 2010. It also doesn’t include the March signup surge. If you add those in, we’re probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 8 million right now, which I think is consistent with a guess of 10 million by the end of the year.

There’s still a lot of guesswork in these numbers, but this is about the best we have right now. It’s less than the 13 million the CBO projected, but it’s a pretty healthy number nonetheless.

UPDATE: It turns out that the CBO uses pro-rated years. If you sign up for coverage on April 1, you count as three-quarters of a year. If you sign up on July 1, you count as half a year. I didn’t know that, and it changes my guess. By normal human terms, I think about 10 million of the previously uninsured will have Obamacare coverage by the end of 2014. By CBO terms, that might come to 9 million or so.

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Here’s a Second Look at Obamacare and the Uninsured

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Obamacare Signups From the Uninsured Appear to Be Surging

Mother Jones

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Out of all the Obamacare signups to date, how many are from people who were previously uninsured? Extrapolating from signups in New York, Charles Gaba provides the following estimates:

October, November, December — perhaps 50% of 2.15 million = 1.075 million previously uninsured
January — perhaps 75% of 1.15 million = 863,000 previously uninsured
February — probably 90% out of, say, 700,000 = 630,000 previously uninsured
March — probably at least 95% out of (unknown number, depends on strength of the expected “March surge”…assume 1.0 – 1.5 million?) = perhaps 0.9 – 1.4 million previously uninsured

Unsurprisingly, people who were already insured dominated the early signups. Since the beginning of 2013, however, it’s mostly been people who are getting insurance for the first time. If Gaba is right, by March we’ll have about 4 million workers who are newly insured via private plans, plus several more millions who have newly qualified for Medicaid. It’s a start.

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Obamacare Signups From the Uninsured Appear to Be Surging

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